EGYPT, NORTH AFRICA — Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced on Friday, in a post on X, that a final agreed text of a peace deal between the United States and Iran had been reached, and that Islamabad was working with both sides to finalise next steps. That brief statement, reported by Al-Monitor on June 12, crystallised a week of extraordinary diplomatic convulsions. Three months after the US-Israeli war on Iran began on 28 February, the guns are nearly silent. But what replaces the fighting may prove more disruptive than the conflict itself, particularly for North Africa, whose energy revenues, shipping lanes, and political calculations are all tied to whatever emerges from Geneva.
The Deal Taking Shape in Geneva
The outlines of the agreement have hardened fast. A senior US administration official, cited by Reuters reporting on Al-Monitor on June 12, said both sides had agreed on a text and that Washington expected to sign an initial memorandum of understanding within days. A separate US official, cited by The Wall Street Journal as reported by Middle East Eye on Saturday, confirmed that Vice President JD Vance is expected to travel to Geneva for the signing, with further technical discussions on unresolved issues to follow in Islamabad.
The financial terms are becoming visible, if contested. Mohsen Rezaei, a senior Iranian official, told Iran’s state-run Fars news agency, as reported by Middle East Eye on Saturday, that Trump had privately agreed to release 24 billion dollars in frozen Iranian assets, despite publicly denying such a concession. A separate US official, cited by The Times of Israel and reported by Middle East Eye on Saturday, confirmed that Trump had directed sanctions on Iran to be eased if Tehran adhered to a future agreement, stressing that verification would be required first.
Nuclear questions remain the most structurally dangerous gap. A senior US official, cited by The New York Times as reported by Middle East Eye on Saturday, said details concerning the future of Iran’s nuclear programme would be addressed only after the memorandum was signed. That sequencing, deal first, denuclearisation later, is precisely the arrangement critics warned against in 2015. As Reuters noted in an Al-Monitor factbox on June 12, the terms of any new agreement have not yet been made public, and it is unclear how they compare to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
Tehran’s Triumph Narrative and the Hormuz Gambit
Iran is not treating this as a compromise. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a televised interview, cited by Middle East Eye on Saturday, that the diplomacy was intended to consolidate what he described as Iran’s victory in the conflict.
“Iran has been the winner of this war, and the people of Iran are the true winners of this arena.”
— Abbas Araghchi, Foreign Minister, Islamic Republic of Iran
More consequential for global trade than the rhetoric is the territorial claim Araghchi attached to the deal. In remarks cited by Middle East Eye on Friday, he said the administration of the Strait of Hormuz would no longer operate as before the war, describing the waterway as falling under the sovereignty of Iran and Oman, and announcing that Tehran would charge fees for vessels transiting the route. That claim, if operationalised, rewrites decades of international maritime law governing freedom of navigation.
The practical damage is already measurable. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Friday, as reported by Middle East Eye, that vessels under US naval protection were carrying approximately seven million barrels of oil per day through the Strait of Hormuz, roughly half of pre-war flow levels. The US Navy is escorting dozens of vessels each night, Wright confirmed. Even with a deal signed, restoring full commercial confidence in the waterway will take months, and Araghchi’s fee announcement suggests Tehran intends to extract permanent economic leverage from its geographic position.
The violence has not stopped pending the diplomacy. US Central Command, in a statement posted on X and cited by Middle East Eye on Saturday, said American forces shot down multiple Iranian one-way attack drones launched over several hours and allegedly targeting commercial vessels transiting the strait. Centcom said all drones were intercepted and that traffic flow continued unimpeded. Three Indian sailors were killed in a separate attack on a vessel off the Omani coast, prompting Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar to raise the issue directly with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, as Middle East Eye reported on Saturday.
The Gulf States’ Quiet Reckoning
The most revealing detail of the week did not come from Washington or Tehran. Reuters, in a report cited by Middle East Eye on Friday, reported that the UAE paid Iran billions of dollars in exchange for a halt to attacks on Emirati territory, an extraordinary reversal for the Gulf state that had lobbied most aggressively for the US to prosecute the war. Two regional sources told Reuters the total agreement reached as high as 10 billion dollars, with a further report suggesting the UAE could eventually pay Iran 20 billion dollars in total. The UAE had already delivered 3 billion dollars at the time of reporting. IRGC officials reportedly stayed at the UAE national security adviser’s guest house last week to finalise the de-escalation arrangement. The UAE government denied that any frozen Iranian funds had been released, moved, or routed through its banking system, as Middle East Eye reported on Friday, though the denial did not directly address the broader payments claim.
This has direct implications for North Africa’s two most strategically exposed states. Egypt, whose Suez Canal revenues were already under pressure from Houthi-related Red Sea disruptions in 2024 and 2025, now faces a potential new transit cost regime in the Gulf if Tehran’s Hormuz fee proposal advances. Libya’s hydrocarbon export calculus shifts with every dollar of oil price movement caused by supply constraints in the Gulf. Algeria, which has positioned itself as an energy supplier to Europe precisely because Gulf instability makes alternatives attractive, watches a potential stabilisation of the Gulf with more ambivalence than relief.
Israel’s position adds further complexity. US President Donald Trump told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a telephone call last week, according to a US official cited by Axios as reported by Middle East Eye on Saturday, that negotiations with Iran were progressing and that an agreement could be reached within days. The official said Netanyahu appeared to recognise during the conversation that he would need to accept the outcome. Meanwhile, UN spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said on Saturday, as reported by Middle East Eye, that UN peacekeepers in southern Lebanon continued to observe high-density armoured movements, large-scale engineering and demolition works, and intensive air activity involving fighter aircraft and drones, with 526 of 531 trajectories monitored on Thursday originating from Israeli positions.
What to Watch
Watch whether the Geneva memorandum signing by Vice President Vance produces a public text, and whether Iran’s claim to charge for Hormuz transit appears in any agreed language, since that single clause would constitute the most significant redrawing of maritime commercial rules in decades. Watch whether Egypt’s government publicly responds to the Hormuz fee proposal, given the direct precedent it would set for Suez Canal sovereignty claims. Watch whether Israeli military activity in southern Lebanon intensifies after a US-Iran deal is formalised, as Netanyahu seeks to demonstrate strategic independence from Washington’s diplomatic constraints. Watch whether Algeria, aware that Gulf stabilisation reduces European demand for its energy exports, adjusts its diplomatic posture toward Tehran in the weeks following any signed agreement.
SOURCES
- Al-Monitor. Pakistan PM Sharif says in X post that final text of US-Iran peace deal agreed, working on next steps. 2026-06-12
- Al-Monitor. Iran peace deal looms while new military action flares near Strait of Hormuz. 2026-06-12
- Middle East Eye. Report: Vance to travel to Geneva for US-Iran memorandum signing. 2026-06-13
- Middle East Eye. Tehran official says $24bn in Iranian funds to be unfrozen. 2026-06-13
- Middle East Eye. Trump open to easing sanctions on Iran, Israeli media reports. 2026-06-13
- Al-Monitor. Factbox-Main provisions of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal abandoned by Trump. 2026-06-12
- Middle East Eye. Tehran describes memorandum as path to formalising battlefield gains. 2026-06-13
- Middle East Eye. US officials say Hormuz oil flows reaching half of pre-war levels. 2026-06-12
- Middle East Eye. US says it shot down multiple Iranian drones over Strait of Hormuz. 2026-06-13
- Middle East Eye. India raises US vessel attacks with Rubio after sailors killed. 2026-06-13
- Middle East Eye. UAE paid Iran billions of dollars to halt strikes: Report. 2026-06-12
- Middle East Eye. UAE denies releasing or moving frozen Iranian funds. 2026-06-12
- Middle East Eye. Iran says nuclear and sanctions issues remain undecided. 2026-06-12
- Middle East Eye. UN observes heavy Israeli troop and air movements near border. 2026-06-13
- Middle East Eye. Axios: Trump urged Netanyahu to end conflict as talks advanced. 2026-06-13
- Middle East Eye. Report: Nuclear issues to be addressed after initial US-Iran accord. 2026-06-13